VIETNAM: A GEOPOLITICAL ASSESSMENT

VIETNAM: A GEOPOLITICAL ASSESSMENT
Presentation at the University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City
June 19, 2026

Nguyen Manh Hung
Professor Emeritus, George Mason University

It is a pleasure and an honor to be invited to speak to this important and timely forum of Vietnam’s movers and shakers.
I was asked to provide a geopolitical assessment of Vietnam today. Let me begin with the good news.

I. VIETNAM: FROM A POOR AND UNDERDEVELOPED COUNTRY TO A RISING MIDDLE POWER

Vietnam is a Southeast Asian nation with a long, strategically located coastline along the Pacific Ocean. Its geography, economic potential, and expanding diplomatic footprint position it as a rising middle power aspiring to become an industrialized, upper middle income country by 2045.

Since the launch of đổi mới economic reforms in 1986, Vietnam has made remarkable economic, political, and military progress, earning a respected place in today’s geopolitical landscape.

Economic Transformation

Vietnam has transitioned from a centrally planned economy to a more market oriented system, moving from one of the world’s poorest countries to a dynamic, fast growing economy.

At the start of đổi mới, Vietnam’s GDP was approximately $4.5 billions with per capita income of $74. By 2026, its GDP had reached $527.27 billion, with per capita income rising to $5,200.
This transformation places Vietnam among the most successful development stories of the past four decades.

Military Strength and Strategic Partnerships

Vietnam ranks 23rd globally in the Global Firepower Military Strength Index and is the second strongest military in Southeast Asia, behind Indonesia.

It has built an extensive network of fourteen comprehensive strategic partnerships across Asia, Europe, and the Americas, including all five permanent members of the UN Security Council. It also maintains an enhanced comprehensive strategic partnership with India, one of Asia’s most powerful militaries. Recently it has added the Philippines, a fellow claimant in the South China Sea and a military ally of the United States, to this list.

Political Standing and Global Influence

Vietnam’s diplomatic stature has grown significantly. It has twice served as a non permanent member of the UN Security Council (2008–2009 and 2020–2021). In 2025, it became a partner member of BRICS, joining a bloc seeking to provide an alternative voice to the U.S.-led Western order.

II. THE CHALLENGE OF THE NEW GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT

After the Cold War, the United States emerged as the dominant global superpower. Today, however, the rapid rise of China and fractures within the Western alliance have introduced a new major power rivalry. The new environment is shaped by:
• Intensifying great power competition
• Shifting U.S. leadership and policy orientation
• China’s rise and widening cracks in the Western bloc.

Great Power Rivalry and Competition

The current geopolitical rivalry differs significantly from the old Cold War. Previously, the confrontation was between the United States and the Soviet Union, operating under a stable system of nuclear deterrence. The emerging “new Cold War” centers on the United States and a rising China, framed by the risk of the Thucydides Trap—the historical pattern in which a rising power threatens to displace an established one, leading to war.
Furthermore, today’s rivalry is unfolding amid an accelerating race for dominance in artificial intelligence and automated warfare, where machines may act far more quickly than humans, increasing the risk of miscalculation and unintended war.

New U.S. Leadership and Shifting Policy Orientation

The election of Donald J. Trump marked a dramatic shift in U.S. foreign and economic policy. Domestic discontent over globalization fueled the rise of populism, economic nationalism, and protectionism.

Key features of this shift include:
• Tariff based pressure on adversaries and allies.
• Transactional diplomacy prioritizing personal dealmaking.
• A desire for a “historic trade deal” with China
• Retreat from traditional U.S. security commitments
• Strategic reorientation toward the Western Hemisphere and Middle East.

These changes have weakened U.S. strategic credibility, leaving allies in Europe and Asia uncertain about American commitments.

The Rise of China and Cracks in the Western Alliance

China has rapidly expanded its global influence:
• It is the world leader in green technology, producing over 80% of global solar panels and dominating electric vehicle and battery manufacturing.
• It has surpassed the U.S. as the top trading partner for more than 120 countries.
• Its dominance in manufacturing risks hollowing out industrial capacity in many countries, creating long-term economic dependencies.

Meanwhile, U.S. policies—including tariffs, pressure on allies, controversial actions in the Middle East, and disagreements over Ukraine—have strained the Western alliance. Several European partners have declined U.S. requests for military support in the Middle East, while Asian allies have expressed concern over delays in U.S. arms deliveries to Taiwan and Japan.

Within the alliance, Washington’s pressure tactics, and occasionally provocative demands—such as suggestions about acquiring Greenland or even annexing Canada—have fueled resentment and weakened NATO cohesion.

Rather than simply accommodating Trump, European leaders are increasingly preparing for a future in which the U.S. is a less predictable partner and Europe is less inclined to follow America’s lead.

French President Emmanuel Macron have urged Europe to “wake up” to what he called the unique moment “where a U.S president, a Russian president, [and]a Chines president are dead against the Europeans.”

Canadian Prime Minister Cartney argues that middle powers must diversify partnerships, strengthen resilience, and form issue based coalitions to counter economic coercion and shape emerging global rules. Pursuing this strategy, Cartney visited China in 2026, met with Xi Jinping to establish a renewed Canada–China partnership, and signed a “preliminary but landmark” trade agreement aimed at easing tensions and expanding bilateral cooperation.

III. VIETNAM’S GEOPOLITICAL POSITION AND CHALLENGES

Vietnamese children grow up hearing that their country is a “gem on the eastern horizon,” a “bright star in the Pacific,” and a “balcony looking out to the Pacific Ocean.” This strategic location offers Vietnam both significant leverage and inherent vulnerability.
Vietnam has so far navigated great power rivalry with considerable skill through “bamboo diplomacy,” multilateralism, diversified foreign relations, and deep integration into the global economy.
Yet the new geopolitical environment requires fresh thinking and policy adjustments.

Vietnam’s Strategic Role in Asia

For many strategists, Vietnam—because of its location, capabilities, and historical experience—is a critical player in the U.S.–China competition for influence. If the United States hopes to prevent the emergence of Chinese hegemony in Asia, it must help transform a China-led regional unipolarity into a more durable multipolar order in which Vietnam can serve as a credible pole.

From Vietnam’s perspective, the U.S. remains an important counterweight to China. However, Trump’s transactional approach and pursuit of a major trade deal with Beijing raise concerns that Southeast Asia, including Vietnam, could become a bargaining chip.

Expanding Strategic Partnerships

As U.S. credibility weakens, Vietnam is expanding ties with other partners:
• Japan, which cannot accept a China centered regional order.
• India, with which Vietnam has elevated ties to an enhanced comprehensive strategic partnership.
• The Philippines, now linked to Vietnam through a new enhanced comprehensive strategic partnership.

These moves allow Vietnam to strengthen its power position without overtly provoking China.

ASEAN and Regional Coalitions

ASEAN remains Vietnam’s most comfortable and familiar regional platform yet achieving consensus among all eleven members is often difficult. A coalition of the three largest Southeast Asian states—Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia—could coordinate more closely and help steer the broader group. Such alignment would not replace ASEAN’s consensus model, but it could provide momentum, shape agendas, and strengthen the region’s collective response to strategic challenges.

Within Indochina (Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia), Vietnam’s leadership is challenged, but greater subregional cohesion would strengthen Vietnam’s strategic influence and reinforce ASEAN unity

Economic and Security Opportunities

Vietnam finds itself at the intersection of intensifying U.S.–China strategic competition. While this rivalry poses risks, it also creates significant economic openings as global firms diversify supply chains and relocate operations to Vietnam. Seizing this moment can help Vietnam deepen its industrial capacity, strengthen supply chain resilience, and accelerate its transition into higher value manufacturing.

In its defense relationships—especially with major partners such as the United States, India, and Japan—Vietnam should prioritize weapons co production, joint research, and technology transfer. These steps would reduce long term dependence on any single supplier and support the development of an indigenous defense industrial base.

The war in Ukraine underscores a critical lesson for smaller states: success in modern asymmetric conflict depends on innovation, adaptability, and creativity, not just conventional military strength. Vietnam can draw valuable insights from this example as it modernizes its own defense posture.

Above all, Vietnam must continue to strengthen both its economy and its military while harnessing its demographic advantages. Doing so will help advance the national aspiration of “making the people rich, the country strong, democratic, just, and civilized.”

Nguyen Manh Hung
Professor Emeritus, George Mason University